Gerdau [GGB] Conference call transcript for 2022 q1
2022-05-05 18:17:10
Fiscal: 2022 q1
Disclaimer*: This transcript is designed to be used alongside the freely available audio recording on this page. Timestamps within the transcript are designed to help you navigate the audio should the corresponding text be unclear. The machine-assisted output provided is partly edited and is designed as a guide.:
Rodrigo Maia: 00:06 Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Rodrigo Maia, Gerdau’s IR. Welcome to Gerdau’s Conference Call to discuss the results of the First Quarter 2022. Here with us today are Gerdau’s CEO, Gustavo Werneck; and Gerdau’s CFO Rafael Japur, who will be presenting to you today. Analysts and investors can send their questions beforehand for the option Q&A. 00:36 We would like to stress that any forward-looking statement that might be made during this conference call related to Gerdau’s business outlook, projections and financial and operating goals are mere assumptions based on management's expectations related to the future of the company. Even though Gerdau believes that it's comments are based on reasonable assumptions. There is no guarantee that future events will not affect this evaluation. 01:05 Now, I would like to give the floor to Gustavo Werneck. Gustavo, please you may start the presentation. Thank you.
Gustavo Werneck: 01:16 Thank you. Thank you, Rodrigo, and good afternoon, everyone. I would like to start by welcoming each one of you to this video conference call to announce Gerdau’s results for the first quarter of 2022. I hope that you are all well and in good health. 01:47 As Rodrigo was saying also joining me today is our CFO Rafael Japur and for both of us, is always a pleasure to talk to you about our performance and also answer questions and issues that may arise during our presentation. I will start by talking about the international scenario the highlights of the overall results and right after that, I'll give you more details about the performance of our business operations in this first quarter of 2022. 02:16 Next, Japur will share some information about our financial performance. And finally, I will come back to highlight a few points about our ESG agenda. At the end, both of us will be available to talk to you about any points that you may want us to elaborate further. 02:37 Well, let's move to the next Slide here, I will start talking about Gerdau’s macro environment. The effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the international scenario began to be experienced more intensively in mid-March. There was a strong increase in spot prices of raw materials, such as coal and alloys and on the energy sector, especially natural gas, which resulted in greater pressure on production costs. 03:10 As you can see you if you look at the charts on the slide. In addition to rearrangement of the international markets, amid a scenario with supply constraints and rising input prices had an impact on global steel prices, which went up all over the world. We’ll continue to monitor the issue closely, but I would like to inform you that our operations were not affected by any kind of disruptions in the supply of raw materials and imports. Since we always work with some safety stocks, and we have a very diversified base of supply. 03:50 Furthermore, I would like to mention that the uncertainties generated during the first quarter around the advent of new variants of COVID-19, especially in the countries in the Americas where we are present had an impact on consumer behavior. In Brazil, for instance, retail performance was affected at the beginning of the year, but all of the other concerns about the variants anticipated over the months, ensuring the return of end consumers to the market, in early February and March. 04:25 On the same note, we continue to monitor the possible effects that were brought about by the recent lockdowns imposed by the Chinese government. These effects may have perhaps a more intense impact on the performance of the world economy in the short and medium term. 04:47 Now, let's turn to the next slide. Here, I would like to briefly comment on the highlights of our first quarter results. Later on Japur will give you more details about our financial performance. We ended the first quarter of 2022 with an adjusted EBITDA of BRL5.8 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28.7% both are record highs for the first quarter. The result as you will see below was mostly influenced by high levels of demand for steel coming from the construction and industrial sectors in North America. 05:29 Now Gerdau’s net income totaled BRL2.9 billion in the first quarter of this year, which represents an increase of 19% year-on-year. In terms, net sales reached BRL20,030 million between January and March, which represents an increase of 24% over the same period of the previous year, with shipments of still totaling 3.1 million tons. 05:57 All of these significant results posted Gerdau this quarter show the company's solid presence in the market where we operate, which reflects it's a reflection of the new geographic positioning focus on the Americas and the business in digital transformations that we have been experiencing in recent years. 06:17 In this next slide, I will talk about the highlights of each one of our business operations. And also, I'll give you an outlook for the markets where Gerdau operates. 06:31 Now, jump into the next slide and I'll start with North America. Here, I would say that adjusted EBITDA of our North America business operation tripled between January and March in the annual comparison, reaching a record value for the quarter with BRL2.7 billion with a record adjusted EBITDA margin of 33%. I would also like to say that the metal spread remains at a high level, close to all time historical levels. Shipments remained at high levels in the first quarter as a result of strong demand from the non-residential construction and manufacturing sectors. 07:12 The outlook for the second quarter, which already began remains very positive since our backlog of orders in the United States, continues to be above historical levels, and above the level seen in the beginning of 2022 equivalent to about 80-days of purchases. Given this scenario, we continue to operate our plans in the region with capacity utilization levels above 90%. We remain optimistic with the demand for skill in North America, especially when you look at the mid-term, especially coming from the construction industry. 07:51 Examples are reinforce, this positive outlook is the architecture billing index, which is a very important indicator that measures the activity of the non-residential construction sector in the country and another indicator that we also monitor is the institute for supply management index, which monitors the performance of the manufacturing sector. Both remained above 50 points between March and April, indicating the continuation of the very sound and strong trajectory recorded over the last few months. 08:22 I would also like to say that labor shortage, the inflation rate and all of the logistical challenges that have affected many North American company, we made the point of attention on our part. We also see as positive the recent orientation of the U.S. Government to require the projects in the $1 trillion infrastructure package used materials produced locally in the country including steel. 08:52 With this backdrop, we will continue to invest in improving the productivity and profitability of our capabilities in North America in order to deliver even more value to our customers. For this year of 2022, I emphasize an investment of about BRL300 million for the modernization of our melt shopping would be in Canada, which will allow us to increase the annual capacity of the plant by 200,000 tons, mainly focusing on the production of structural profiles. 09:23 Now moving forward to the next slide. I would like to highlight that in light of the record results posted in the first quarter, I think I'd like to recall the journey of culture and management transformation that our North American business operation has been going through in recent years. This has ensured us to achieve a better level of productivity and operating excellence of our units. And by the same token, we were able to expand our portfolio products offered to Canadian and North American customers, especially in the construction manufacturing and distribution sectors. 10:02 We have also designed a production and commercial strategy focused on serving our customers generating more value for the entire chain in which we are present. All this transformation is also reflected in the steel shipments through the digital channels. 10:17 In this first quarter, we continue to focus on our digital efforts. Taking advantage of our commercial network and our beta-driven culture to improve even more our customers’ journey in North America and also contributing to the improvement of their business results. We are also enjoying productivity improvements in our operations as our digital initiatives streamline our business processes, and also with that, we're able to make faster decisions in our everyday operation. We have been striving to empower our teams to identify opportunities and remove potential obstacles in all our operating processes in order to add value to all of our stakeholders, both internal and external. 11:14 Now, I'll just jump to our next slide, and now I'll talk about our special steel operation. Well, I’d like to highlight our financial results. We in the first quarter of this year, our EBITDA was higher than the EBITDA of the fourth quarter of last year and also higher than the first quarter of 2021. In the United States, the light-vehicles market continues to be impacted by the chip shortage, the regularization of the supply of components previously expected for this year should only occur in 2023, due to the impact of the most recent lockdowns imposed by the Chinese government. In any case for 2022, the production of light-vehicles in the U.S. should rise about 14.7%, reaching 15.2 million units. 12:09 The outlook for the heavy vehicle market is more positive. With the production of trucks expected to total 300,000 units this year, when compared to 259,000 units of last year. The oil and gas sector should also accelerate its space of recovery with rig counts reaching an average of 874 in 2021, well 2022, when compared to 603 last year. The special steel market in Brazil has also been impacted by the lack of semiconductors in the low volume of the inventories at the OEMs and as the result, the production of light vehicles in the country dropped 17% in the first quarter in a year-on-year comparison according to data from National Association of Vehicle Manufacturers Anfavea. The forecast for 2022, however, is for 9% growth in the volume produced according to that same association. 13:08 Now speaking about heavy vehicles, the production remains strong with any expected increase of 8% in production. A positive aspect that collaborates with this scenario is the recent signals given by the Brazilian government regarding the implementation of the fleet renewal program, which will encourage the replacement of trucks that are more than 30-years old. The agriculture machinery segment driven by the expectation of record harvest this year once again should also see its production volume reach near historic levels totaling about a 100,000 units in 2022. 13:47 Moreover, we continue to notice that the consumption of special steels have been influenced by a higher export volume of auto parts and also light vehicles, whose producers have benefited from opportunities in the global supply chain, which has made their products more competitive in four markets. 14:09 Finally, I would like to point out that the new continues casting unit at Pindamonhangaba, which is our new continuous casting unit will be scheduled to start up after a total investment of around BRL700 million. This equipment will allow Gerdau to have a more automated process with better yields resulting in the delivery of differentiated products and an even higher level of quality to the demanding markets. The technological upgrade of the unit is also aligned with the future prospects of the increasing use of what the market calls clean steel, which is a steel of higher quality with greater inclusion cleanliness. 15:01 Well move now to our next slide and here I will talk about the long and flat steel scenario in Brazil, whose performance in the first quarter reflects the period of transition and accommodation of steel demand in the different sectors in which we operate. However, this accommodation is at very healthy levels when we look at the past years. Also, excluding the effects of replacement and inventory building that we saw throughout 2021, the real demand for 2022 is similar to the volumes that we experienced in the second half of last year and about 25% higher than the average that we had in 2019 and 2020. 15:48 Therefore, we anticipate up to 4% year-on-year growth in actual demand in 2022. Demand for steel from the construction sector remains at a high level. And I'll elaborate more about this subject during the Q&A session. The inventory of real estate is a normalized level for approximately 11 months according to Sao Paulo and the forecast is that 2022 will be the second best historical year in property launching according to the Brazilian Association of real estate credit and savings. 16:28 Another example that makes its confidence is a number active construction sites in Brazil, which continues to grow. And in April, it reached its highest number in the past 15 years. Retail sales have stabilized at high levels after the uncertainties experienced at the beginning of the year, due to the new COVID-19 variants as I said at the beginning. These concerns have been dissipated over the past two months. 16:56 In this regard we continue to strengthen our sales channels, increasingly focus on providing the best possible experience to work customers. In this first quarter of 2022, there was a record number of customers placing order using our digital channels with an increase of 7 percentage points, when compared to the same period of 2021. In addition, we recorded a high level of adoption with more than 80% of our customers using at least one of our digital channels. 17:29 I also stress the gradual resumption of investment and infrastructure. There was a robust active calendar of highway projects in auctions. In prolong three state projects were announced involving investments of around BRL11 billion. Also positive is the progress of the federal government called Pro-Trilhos, which foresees investments of over BRL200 billion for the construction of 19,000 kilometers of new railroads in 10 years. Also, we see high demand for steel from the industrial sector, driven by agri business, capital goods, machinery and equipment, road, implement and energy as well. 18:17 The oil and gas sector for instance should invest more than BRL13 billion in 2022 and another BRL20 billion in 2023 according to IBP, which is a Brazilian Institute of oil and gas. Furthermore, I would like to point out that we are moving forward with the already announced investment of about BRL1 billion for the expansion of the coiled hot rolled strips capacity in the Ouro Branco Mill in Minas Gerais and as of 2024, the annual coil production in Ouro Branco will be increased by 250,000 tons, which will allow us to deliver steel with increasingly higher added value to customers, reinforcing our performance in the flat steel market in the country. 19:06 Now I'll move to our next slide when I will briefly talk about South America. In Argentina, demand for steel coming from the construction and agri business sectors remained strong, which have boosted sales in the local market. The Argentine time construction sector grew almost 31% in 2021 year-on-year according to numbers recently disclosed by INDEC, the statistics Institute of Argentina. 19:35 for 2022, the outlook indicates that the construction activity will remain at a high level. The same scenario very similar to the one in Uruguay and Peru demand for steel continues at good levels, boosted by the construction industry, despite the impacts of the recent logistics strike and also political uncertainties. There are still in place in Peru for quite some time. Therefore, we continue to have a positive outlook for this business operation and more recently, we just announced an investment for the expansion of the rolling new capacity for the production of pipes in the unit improve. And the estimate of the Central Bank of that country estimates that GDP will grow at about 2% in 2022. Well, this is just a general overview of our operations and certainly we can get into more details during our Q&A session. 20:33 Now I'll turn the floor over to Japur, who is just sitting next to me, and he will and then after his presentation, I will talk about ESG strategy, and then we will go to the Q&A. So Japur, the floor is yours.
Rafael Japur: 20:49 Gustavo, thank you very much. Good afternoon to all of you. It's a great pleasure to be here with you in our earnings release call, and I hope that you are all well. 20:59 Now speaking about our financial highlights in this first quarter, so let's move the next slide, here I will you just peg along what Gustavo talked about before and we’ll first highlight our EBITDA in this first quarter and our capacity to cover EBITDA into free cash flow. So in the first quarter, based on an EBITDA of BRL5.8 billion, we invested approximately BRL2.4 billion in our business, split between working capital and CapEx. 21:34 Well, after payment of taxes and financial obligations that we had in the quarter we were able to converge 52% of our EBITDA into free cash flow generation or 15% of our revenue for the period. It's the third consecutive quarter where Gerdau was able to convert all over 50% percent of its EBITDA into free cash flow generation or in the case of this first quarter, it was 15% of our revenues in the period. 22:06 Now to give you a bit more details and telling you a bit more about our capacity to generate free cash flow. If you look at the chart at the top, these BRL3 billion in the first quarter, when we look at what we had in the last 12 months, we arrive at BRL11.4 billion. This is the eighth consecutive quarter in which the company has been able to post positive free cash flow and the seventh with cash generation above BRL1 billion, this results from our resilience or the resilience of our business model, because we have the capacity to generate cash through the cycle in different business environments, and this is also a result of our consistent process to deleverage our balance sheet. This is something that we've been doing since 2016. 23:02 Now, looking at the bottom of the slide, this quarter our working capital was BRL15 billion with the cash conversion cycle of on days. Well, 60 days. However, it's important to highlight that this is the second lowest cash conversion cycle for first quarter in the last 10 years of our historical series, it’s not only stresses our discipline in terms of capital management, but also our increasing efficiency and quickness in making decisions and the way that we conclude our business in the whole chain as mentioned by Gustavo, when he talked about each of -- each one of our business operations. 23:49 Now, speaking about liquidity and our debt position. This quarter, there was a reduction of BRL1.3 billion in our gross debt, mainly attributed to the impact of the exchange rate variation, on the debt portion of our balance sheet, which is denominated in U.S. dollars. With that our gross net -- gross debt total BRL12.8 billion. Considering our cash up BRL7.6 billion, and our net debt was BRL5.8 billion. With that, we're able to reduce our financial leverage measured by the net debt over EBITDA ratio to a historical minimum of 1.20 times, this is a record level with no precedent in our entire history of 121 years, our long-term debt as you can see if you look at the chart on -- in the bottom has a very well distributed amortization schedule, and there are no accumulation in terms of maturity days for the next five years. 25:02 Now, speaking a bit more about amortization. I would like to remind you that as previously disclosed on April 11th, next week, we will have the early amortization of our 2024 bond next week with the execution of that , and this should generate approximately BRL800 million in line with our goal of reducing not only the amount of our gross debt, but also the portion of the debt, which is denominated in US dollars. This increases our capacity to give more returns to our shareholders. 25:43 Then speaking about returns to our shareholders. If you look at the top of the slide, you see the evolution of our net income in the past few years and our capacity of distribution or payout. So better results in our effective discipline in terms of reducing leverage about us to generate dividend yields much higher than those that we had in the past. As we can tell by looking at the bottom part of the slide, we went from 13 -- 3.6% in 2018 to 11.2% in the last 12 months at closing of the first quarter of 2022. 26:28 And speaking about dividends in light of first quarter results Gerdau SA and Metalurgica Gerdau will pay dividends on May 26 and 27 respectively of 2022, Gerdau SA will payout out BRL964 million or BRL0.57 per share on shares held on 26 of March 2022. In the case of Metalurgica Gerdau we will pay our BRL314 million or BRL0.29 per share. The position of shares held on May 16 2022. 27:09 In addition to the aforementioned dividends and according to the material fact, we released to the market this morning, both Gerdau S.A. and Metalurgica Gerdau approved a share buyback program aimed at acquiring up to 55 million preferred shares from Gerdau S.A. and up to 69 million for per shares for Metalurgica Gerdau corresponding to 5% and 10% of the free float of that class of shares respectively. Both programs will have a duration of 18 months. 27:46 This initiative of this buyback program for both Gerdau S.A. and Metalurgica Gerdau reflects our discipline in capital allocation and also the confidence we have in our capacity to generate or to continue to generate cash over time. Combined with our very resilient business model and our commitment is to generate even more value to our shareholders. 28:11 I thank you all for your attention, and now I give the floor to Gustavo, who will comment about our ESG initiatives.
Gustavo Werneck: 28:20 Thank you, Japur. Finally in the last part on the next slide, I would like to give you an update on some important points of our Gerdau’s ESG agenda by sharing highlights and progress in our journey. I mentioned that we are making progress in the construction of our solar park in Midlothian and the U.S. State of Texas, where our largest long steel plant in the countries located. This picture shows this conclusion of the words, and I recently took this photo at the solar panels are arriving right now. 28:59 In a short timeframe, we want to have all the solar park concluded. The clean energy generated by the park will supply the local unit and like I said, it is in line with our strategy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions also through investments in renewable energy projects. Our expectation is that once we have these panels, the plan will be up and running by the second half or early second half of this year. In addition, I highlight that Gerdau’s audited average greenhouse gas emissions dropped from 0.93 to 1.90 tons, which is the number audited in 2021. We had a dramatic reduction and this new value strengthens our commitment announced earlier this year to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to 1.83 tons of Co2 per ton of steel by 2031. 30:02 Now on the next slide, I would like to share that for the first time, we acknowledge through the inspire Gerdau program aging partners in our supply chain. Suppliers that stood out by making headway in their demographics, with the increase in the percentage of women and for descendants and people with disabilities in its workforce and with good practices related to the theme of diversity and inclusiveness, the program was created at the end of 2020 and it aims to mobilize and encourage our suppliers to consolidate best practices in diversity and inclusive. 30:40 In the beginning of 2022, we reached the number of 203 micro companies and even large supplier companies that joined the contract. We continue to work to be an increasingly inclusive and diverse steel producer. In addition to engaging the entire ecosystem in which we are present. In addition, I would like to mention that we recently completed the renovation of the first house selected by the Reforma que Transforma, the largest social project in Gerdau’s history, which will contribute to the improvement of more than 13,000 vulnerable homes in Brazil over 10 years. The renovation was carried out at a home of a Gerdau employee in the city of Barao de Cocais, State of Minas Gerais, whose home was damaged by heavy range in the state of the beginning of the year. We reaffirm our commitment to be in part of the solution to the challenges of the stakeholders with whom we interact in our daily activities and the society at large. 31:45 To conclude, I would like to point out that we remain keen on building the company’s future. Through initiatives to attract talents and retain talents, such as the future our trainee program. In the 2022 edition, we reached a record volume of registrations, exceeding 40,000 thousand applicants and more than 200 hires. They started their careers with us at Gerdau. I'm confident that for this group of trainees. Well, they come to join our 30,000 employees. And I'm confident that we are on the right track to view the next 121 years of the company. 32:32 Thank you very much for your attention. But before we move into the question-and-answer session, our debate session. I would like to give the floor back to Japur, so he can make an announcement. Over to you Japur.
Rafael Japur: 32:47 Thank you, Gustavo. I would just like to take this opportunity to let you know that Rodrigo Maia, our IR manager is leaving Gerdau in May for personal projects. For more than 13-years, Rodrigo was an important spokesperson for us at Gerdau. The community that is with us today and with a lot of recognition in his performance with EBRI and Nebraska. Rodrigo on behalf of Gustavo and the whole Gerdau team and everybody who were touched by you in your time with us, we would really like to thank you and wish you a lot of success in this next step in your journey. And so there'll be a new IR leader with us. Thank you, Rodrigo.
Rodrigo Maia: 33:45 Thank you, Japur. Thank you for your kind words. I also wish you a lot of success and I say that our lives is broken out in quarters, so I have more than 50 cycles at Gerdau that is constantly changing the future. It's a great school, I also thank the Capital Markets community here will have more than 400 participants in our conference call, and also our internal colleagues particularly Gustavo Werneck, Rafael, our IR team Sergio, So after 18 years in the market, I'll go into data science in Europe, and I'll see you again in the future.
A - Rodrigo Maia: 34:28 Having said that, let us open now the question-and-answer session. We currently ask you to ask two question maximum per participant. Let us begin with a Q&A button and as you raise your hand, I'll also give the floor to you. The first question is from Rodolfo Angele with JPMorgan. What is the outlook for metal spread in the US? Considering there is shortage of scrap? Are precious firm? And the other question, what about cost in general we've seen a lot of cost inflation in the industry. Thank you.
Gustavo Werneck: 35:27 Rodolfo, it’s a pleasure to talk to you. Thank you for sending your question. I would like to begin my answer and by the way Japur feel free to add anything you want to comment on. As for scrap shortage in the U.S. this is more related to prime scrap with a reduction of automotive production, this brings shortage of scrap in the U.S. market, but obsolescence scrap that we use particularly in our long steel mill, they have a adequate purchase volume and volatility over the last months in our point of view, it will continue to be like this. 36:11 However, the outlook for metal spread over 2022 is quite positive. We understand that with this metal spread at historic high levels, and with the evolution over the last four years, considering also our performance in North America, we have conditions to support the results that we achieved in the first quarter, so they continue over 2022. 36:41 And moving forward, if we consider demand I make a point in reminding you that we continue to have a very, very strong backlog. This backlog has not been reduced quite the opposite this April it increased a little. So we still don't see any demand effect coming from the infrastructure package, as it's possible to be more visible by year end demand wise. So wherever we look in our U.S. operation, we very confident that the result level would be sustainable. 37:19 The greatest challenge I had Rodolfo right now in North America has to do with manpower, labor, recently we check the data there was disclosed about unemployment in the U.S. The number is going up, opportunities of 10 million to 11.5 million job opportunities, which is very significant, almost 4.5 million U.S. citizens change jobs for the last month. So that's a challenge for us, but despite the challenge this is the best time of our history in terms of industrial and operational performance. We had a historic level of delivery this May. 37:58 And we currently we reach levels of production in our mills over 400,000 tons, rarely did we see that in the past. And considering this despite the lower number of mills that we had since the divestments, we've been managing to have a performance industrial level that is unprecedented in the U.S. market. With regards to cost, the pressure goes on, volatility also goes on, although for the greatest challenge ahead our costs related to metallurgical coal, they have an impact on Ouro Branco plant, but costs more related to our scrap mills and bio reducer, I would say they are relatively under control as we speak. 38:43 This inflation rate to some extent was already included in the cost that we had in the first quarter and the challenges to keep on managing the supply chain in general. Any possible disruption particularly logistics that may happen in the coming months. So they don't have an impact on our production capacity, particularly in North America.
Rodrigo Maia: 39:08 Thank you, Gustavo. Next we'll open the screen, so Daniel Sasson from Itau can ask his question. Daniel? We can see you, Daniel. But we don't hear you, which is the most important thing.
Gustavo Werneck: 40:15 Rodrigo maybe Daniel can send his question via chat.
Rodrigo Maia: 40:21 Perfect, so let's move to the second question, Caio Ribeiro. Thank you for the opportunity. My question is about the buyback program, would it be reasonable to assume that you will keep on using the buyback program as long as the net debt over EBITDA and indebtedness -- gross indebtedness are closed to your goal? And secondly about the pipeline of infrastructure in the U. S. should expect to become material in the second half of the year? Or should we wait until 2021?
Gustavo Werneck: 40:58 Caio, thank you. Japur maybe you can answer Caio about the buyback program and then I'll come back about the pipeline of infrastructure and maybe we can listen to Daniel after that.
Rafael Japur: 41:11 Okay, Caio. I hope everything is fine. In our buyback program, both in Gerdau S.A. and Metalurgica, we understand that our stock are under appraised by the market in general, but consistently over the years. This is why we believe that considering multiple studies that we carried out in our securities vis-a-vis peers in North America for instance, considering the ratio of our results in the operation. Just to give an example, this shows that we have an important discount vi-a-vis the price we have in our stocks, that's why we opened this program as to the continuity, this was opened for 18 months. 41:56 And we understand that once that we work on this program, we'll be reassessing the scenario of our leverage, our cash generation capacity, our indebtedness and you consider if it is the case to renew and start a new program. But at first, we are opening this program considering 5% of free float PN for SA and 10% of free float for PM Metalurgica Gerdau, and we believe it's an important step in terms of improving return to shareholders and shown in a very significant manner our commitment to long-term value generation for our shareholders. Now Gustavo is going to answer your question about infrastructure.
Gustavo Werneck: 42:53 Thank you, Japur. Caio, we are watching very closely the infrastructure package and the breakdown and details of this project in more specific areas. When it comes to timing, we have divestment in specific projects, and we believe this will only be converted into real demand around November or December this year. It's interesting to say that in addition to this fact, spending on infrastructure in the U.S. is very strong. Recently, they disclosed the numbers for March. And in the quarter, almost BRL360 billion invested in the North American construction sector. 43:39 The backlog is very robust for us. Today, you have more than 1 billion tons of steel in our backlog. So we expect to see this package adding to the backlog starting November. Another important thing to say is the U.S. Government and administration, recently announcing that infrastructure package preferably will use local domestic production in the U.S., which includes steel. So they only buys steel for these projects, so they fail to meet the local demand. This is very good and it's also a guarantee that the demand is going to continue with a high demand for us also in the mid-term.
Rodrigo Maia: 44:27 Thank you, Gustavo. Now Daniel Sasson with Itau. Thank you for the opportunity, and he has two question. Brazil the improved demand that you expect to see in infrastructure with the maintenance of demand of formal construction. Do you think it should or could offset the drop in volume that you expect to see in distribution at auto and construction sectors? As for price, we had a discount of 20% of long steel in Brazil vis-a-vis the parity of imports. This has been on for a while now. Can you make comments on any possible difficulties that you might be facing to transfer prices to the local market? As for the U.S., do you believe that a 33% margin in Q1 could be maintained in the second quarter? And what about metal spread in late March vis-a-vis the average for the quarter? Thank you.
Gustavo Werneck: 45:30 Daniel thank you. Let me use your question to give you an overview. Maybe with more detail on the Brazilian market. There were some pessimism, strong exaggerated pessimism about demand in the first quarter. And we don't believe this demand is a real demand at the end of the day that would be repeated in the coming quarters. Actually, there were problems in January and February. Rainfall in Minas Gerais, COVID. However, this demand has already been recovered in March and in April we've posted very good numbers. 46:20 We believe that year 2020 you in general, the demand in Brazil is expected to grow around 2%, compared to 2021. 2021 was also so very strong, if you think about 2020 our deliveries on in Brazil in the domestic market were around 4 million tons in 2018 and 2019. In 2021, we delivered 5 million tons, an additional 1 billion tons vis-a-vis 2018 and 2019. 46:55 We expect this level of demand in delivery in the domestic market to be maintained. So, basically, what happened in Q1? The problems we had were mostly related to two points. Firstly, in the wire rod segment, there were more imported products in the first months of the year. Vessels with important products last year and I had a hard time to ship in Brazilian harbors and ports owing into logistics, so these products arrived now. And the trend for the future is that the level of imported steel in Brazil will go back to historic levels. So there was a delay of the arrival of wire rod in Brazil. 47:46 And the second thing that we had drop in demand was with so called expanded products, steel products more related to auto construction and retail. However, if we think about other segments, despite this more competitive and challenging, Q1 there were significant growth rates think about rebar deliveries, they increased almost 10% in the first quarter of this year, year-over-year. Deliveries of flat steel were constant. So, today there are some fundamentals. Strong fundamentals that allow us to be more bullish in the future. 48:25 To give an idea Daniel, I mentioned in my talk that in April, we had the record in 15 years of active construction sites in Brazil, 9,100 open construction sites in Brazil, and their making use of steel and also real estate launches in Brazil recently, these sales increased by 36% in the first quarter of this year, vis-a-vis the first quarter of last year. So the civil construction sector is using a lot of steel like years ago, and you also talked about interest rates and how should we expect to see a drop in demand? We believe this won't happen in the short-term, we expect the lower demand for steel for civil construction to happen in early 2023. 49:16 In our vision, this will be mitigated by this increases in steel use and infrastructure. To give an idea, I just recall Daniel a couple of years ago, the use a rebars, our sales and shipment for infrastructure was 40% of our sales. Today, it is 10% of shipments, so everything we sell about rebar only 10% is for infrastructure, the historic number is 40, so demand for steel and infrastructure is pretty low. So considering all the auctions and concessions, the trend is that this percentage will come back. If we consider that steel that are used in infrastructure by and large, they are larger than the grades that are used for other purposes. 50:03 I would also like to say that steel for industry continues to be very strong. The portfolios related to agribusiness and yellow machines, energy, historically, they are very high. So considering as of March, considering April, and the outlook for this year in Brazil is that to have very consistent demand.
Rodrigo Maia: 50:30 And what about profitability?
Gustavo Werneck: 50:33 I prefer to talk more about profit profitability than a price. So there was fierce competition this year, and we took longer than expected to go back to profitability levels. That's why export numbers went down to historically high levels. And this new composition of profitability already occurred in April. So expectation for the second quarter is to have a level of profitability in Brazil above what we saw in Q1, so our outlook is very positive. 51:11 And also in the U.S., we understand these margins that we had over 30%. They will be maintained in the coming quarters not only because spread will be high, but also because we have a high performance historical level in our mills. Like we said, remember the plan that we mentioned over 2017 and ’18 to recover our industrial performance with management, but also with Capex investment in our main mills. After four years, actually, it was consolidated. So our levels now operational levels are unprecedented in the history of our U.S. operations. So the outlook is very positive out there.
Rodrigo Maia: 51:56 Thank you, Gustavo. The next question is from Thiago Lofiego. Thiago, please feel free to ask your question.
Thiago Lofiego: 52:16 Can you hear me?
Gustavo Werneck: 52:18 We can hear clearly Thiago. Nice to talk to you.
Thiago Lofiego: 52:22 Great to see you all congratulations. Rodrigo, thank you for all you've done for us. For the last 13 years, it was a pleasure to work with you. Always supporting us and to better understand the company, congratulations on the job and good luck on this new phase.
Rodrigo Maia: 52:40 Thank you, Thiago. So let's go for it.
Thiago Lofiego: 52:45 Two question. Werneck coming back to margins in the U.S., I understand that in the short-term, or maybe for the coming quarters margins might be at a very high level. However, what's you mindset about long-term margin in the U.S. Should we expect to consider a new level for margins? And considering this scenario of a potential new level, did you believe that we should expect to see some announcements for new plans in the U.S. profitability is very high, and it might bring more supply and offers. So what about your mindset about it? 53:27 Second question is about expansion in Texas, you mentioned this in your presentation, I don’t recall having heard about this expansion in previous times. Could you tell us more about it? 700,000 tons, I guess, what about CapEx, time and rational? Thank you.
Gustavo Werneck: 53:44 Great, Thiago. Actually, we can see this margins sustain in a short and long-term or mid-term. Despite these concerns we have in the U.S. about inflation, et cetera, and recession ahead. We believe that owing to the infrastructure package as well, our steel industry will be less affected, so we have a very positive outlook considering the short and mid-term and long-term considering all volatility is very hard to understand what margins will be, but certainly higher than in the past. Back in 2017, like I said, when we were with margins around 6.3% to be more precise, we had a very strong robust plan to recover the margins. There was a significant gap in performance vis-a-vis our main competitors. Part of it was closed over the last two or three years, it was saddled by changing the leadership and we also -- we're very assertive in our investments in the main mills in order to provide more flexibility and have a stronger focus to cater to our customers needs one stop shop and we also filled some technology gaps. So today, we are more prepared than we were in the past. 55:11 Margins from the past certainly will not be back. We have more conditions internally to deliver higher margins than we delivered last year. As for new entrants, we know very well how the dynamic works. all the margins and flat steel in the U.S. in recent years, this encouraged big investment in flat steel in the U.S., not so much in long steel, so if margins are sustainable, it might be attractive for new investments not by chance that we are very early on. We keep on investing there Thiago to be better prepared. 55:53 So we recently approved by the Board of Directors a significant investment in Jackson, Tennessee Mill. In order to have more capacity there is one of the most productive mills in the world when it comes to long steel, we want to have it prepared and to be more competitive cost wise and also in terms of product mix, so we can be in a scenario that might be more difficult in the future. As for Midlothian, like I said, we have investments to produce clean energy, investments to improve the plant are still being discussed. This is the greatest plant we have in North America, Thiago. We believe this plant will unleash a growth capacity, but so far, we haven't concluded all the details of the investment in this plant.
Thiago Lofiego: 56:43 What about timing and potential, Werneck?
Gustavo Werneck: 56:47 Well, our intention is to have the investment approved by the board for Midlothian by the end of 2022. We are looking for alternatives that are allowed to have this investment, the best way possible when it comes to cost and timing is always complex to invest in such a great plant, so we want to prevent, schedule maintenance, engineering is very sophisticated and we want to have the least impact possible. So in future quarters, we expect to give you more detail on this investment, because this plant is very relevant for us in our U.S. portfolio.
Thiago Lofiego: 57:27 Thank you.
Rafael Japur: 57:28 Just adding to Thiago, Thiago just adding to what you said. It's very important to highlight what Gustavo showed on those slide about our history from 2016 onwards. It's important to highlight that our past portfolio was more related to wire rod and rebars in the U.S. When we went with a margin lower one digit, traditionally this segment is more exposed to exports. Today we have the to two in the U.S. market with some concessions that are country by country by the U.S. government, but traditionally the segment of profiles or merchant bars is less exposed to imports, compared to wire rod and rebar. 58:19 And there is an important process to reposition our assets in North America. And today we have a franchise for long premium products pretty much related to structural products and profiles. We understand this to be a market sector in the U.S. for long steel far more resilient. Considering the margins we had in the past, it's important to make it clear when we work on the story telling of our investment in U.S. from 2017 for 2022 and long steel in the U.S.
Thiago Lofiego: 58:52 Thank you, Japur. It's clear.
Rodrigo Maia: 58:56 Thank you very much. Our next question is from Leonardo Correa from BTG Pactual.
Leonardo Correa: 59:03 Good afternoon, everyone, and congratulations for the quarter. Capital allocation given that your indebtedness goal has been delivered into BRL12 billion of the gross debt. What should we expect going forward, a new dividend policy? Second question, profitability over your business in Brazil given all of the price increases expected for the second quarter. Could you -- could we just say that Q1 ’22 was like a low of profitability in cash generation for the year?
Gustavo Werneck: 59:40 Well, thank you very much. I'll try to be very objective, because I think, I already told you that. Well, Yes, the first quarter is a profitability low because in March, we already experienced a significant recovery of profitability in the domestic market and also considering our experts. As there was a mismatch between costs in price, especially in regards to coal in Ouro Branco, we will now see expert margins growing more substantially, beginning April and May. So can you help me with the answers Japur?
Rafael Japur: 60:14 Hi, Leo. Now speaking about Brazil, when we ran an analysis, and we look at our special steels in South America and Brazil. Let me just give you an example of North America in the last 12 months, no, sorry in the last eight quarters. Every quarter, we were able to increase EBITDA on a quarterly basis in the last 12-months, the accumulated figure was over BRL8 billion in EBITDA. Once you apply the multiples of the industry looking at our peers in the U.S. and our specialty steel operation, and the in North America and Brazil. I mean, look at Brazil, therefore we believe that this was an adequate attitude in terms of this buyback program, because this isn't keeping with our objective to pursue discipline and capital allocation. 61:12 In regards to the continuity of the programs and the increase in the payout, we understand that given the presentation of the slides we have for you, we've been paying out dividends above 20% and 30%. Therefore, it's not necessarily, we believe to change the dividend payout policy, because our policy goes beyond what has been already set up in our -- by loss. I mean, we set up that minimum. Therefore, we understand that our dividend policy today gives us enough flexibility to than when moments like in the third quarter of last year when we had a large cash generation, we are able to increase the dividend payout. We understand that this combination of 30% of dividend payout and with the program that we just initiated of share buyback, it's a very robust way to keep remunerating our shareholders as well.
Leonardo Correa: 62:20 Thank you, Japur.
Rodrigo Maia: 62:22 Our next question is from Carlos Alba from Morgan Stanley.
Carlos Alba: 62:30 We notice an increase in working capital, what can we expect going forward in relation to working capital? The share buyback program also focus on GGBR3 or GGBR4? How would you price the buyback of the shares from Metalurgica S.A?
Rafael Japur: 62:58 Well, I hope you're well, Carlos. In terms of our working capital, this quarter we had an investment of BRL1.9 billion in working capital. But once you look at our historical series, we see that for this first quarter, where traditionally, we do have some scheduled maintenance for North America and Brazil. So this cash conversion cycle is still low. 63:25 If you look at our overall cycle. So this is the second lowest in the last 10 years. So in 2021, when it was also a low level, we were going through a phase where we were replenishing the inventories in all of the chain, but this was low across the board. For the next quarter, we believe that with -- I mean, we still believe in the growth of our shipments in North America also taking into account, Gustavo’s previous answers saying that we are expecting to increase the profitability of our Brazil operations. So it's just natural that we will still keep some investments in working capital. I don't know whether Gustavo wants to add anything about working capital.
Gustavo Werneck: 64:21 No, I think it's fine. I think we can just go to his next point, which refers to the buyback program.
Rafael Japur: 64:30 In terms of the buyback program for , we are only focusing on preferred shares. And there is a very small free float of original shares. So we understand that due to the amount of shares, it wouldn't make sense right now to also include common shares. Now in terms of funding for the buybacks, today in the first quarter Metalurgica Gerdau just closed with BRL8000 million of net cash. And if you look at the period of 12 months and acquire 109 million preferred shares, if we were to take this cash and divide it by BRL69 million, you would have about a price of BRL11.60 per share, which is close to what we are trading our shares. We understand that the cash that Metalurgica has today without considering financial revenues that this cash will accrue from now to November of 2023, when the program is concluded. This is more than enough to fund the buyback of the 69 million shares.
Carlos de Alba: 65:56 Thank you, Japur.
Rodrigo Maia: 65:58 Our next question is from Rafael Shakur with SFA Investments.
Rafael Shakur: 66:04 Congratulations for your excellent results. My question relates to pricing and costs in North America for the remaining of the year. At what level you can anticipate metal spreads to be for the remaining of the year? The other question is, at what level of your cash conversion cycle, you could consider ideal? Could we expect a higher consumption of working capital?
Gustavo Werneck: 66:33 Well, thank you for your question. And before I give the floor to your name sake, Rafael Japur. I mean, the West or North America is pretty much along the lines of what I said before. We understand that we already reached a very stable level of price and cost in spreads. Certainly, there will always be volatility along the way. I believe that one of the strengths we have as a company considering everything we did in the past few years and our capacity to quickly adjust to all of the market volatilities, because we responded quickly. These are times when we can really extract the best moments of the company. So, we believe that margins and results will be maintained. Especially considering the numbers we posted for the first quarter. 67:26 Now referring to that cycle in working capital, now I'll get the floor to Japur, because he will be able to give you more details.
Rafael Japur: 67:33 All right. As we mentioned before, also when we answer de Alba’s question, we believe that once our positive outlook is maintained for the Brazil and North American operations. We believe that we should have some investments in working capital taking into account our historical cash conversion cycles, which fluctuate between 60 and 90 days. Well there are some uniqueness of each business, but this is the pretty much the range. 68:13 I am also taking into account price adjustments that occurred in Brazil and the current dynamics of the North American market. But therefore we believe that in the second quarter, we will still have some investment in working capital.
Rafael Shakur: 68:30 Thank you, Japur.
Rodrigo Maia: 68:32 Our next question is from Jonathan Brent from HSBC.
Jonathan Brandt: 68:39 My question is about the North American steel market. Well given the high interest rates in the U.S. and high inflation. What is the outlook considering these two things? Do you have any concerns about a potential slowdown? And my second question is on the share buyback. What led the decision to announce this today? And what will be the final destination of the shares will they remain in treasury or you think they will be canceled?
Rafael Japur: 69:16 Well, it's a pleasure to talk to you, Jonathan. Well, I'll start from your last question. In Brazil, we have a silly or a limit to be held in treasury, which is up to 10% of the free float of the class of shares. I mean, this is the top amounts that the company could hold in treasury. Well, once we execute with the buyback program, we will then evaluate the destination of the proceeds, but mainly, this is for capital allocation and return to shareholders. So it's just natural to assume that there will be the cancellation of the shares, if the program is successfully conducted. 69:59 In terms of long-term perspectives for North America, I think it's important to highlight that despite a volatile macroeconomic environment, with the recent decision from the Fed to adjust the figures, we've seen that the business changed and our order portfolio being very robust. However, we haven't yet seen the firm entry of new steel volumes or steel orders related to the package recently approved by the Biden registration. Gustavo mentioned that when we were talking about our different business operations. Therefore, we believe that in case of a possible slowdown of the activities, due to inflation and interest rates, the infrastructure program that represents an important increase in the demand could be like a good buffer to amortize some reduction in demand in the second half of 2022 and in early 2023. If Gustavo wants to add anything, please feel free.
Gustavo Werneck: 71:19 Well, I think we already talked about that enough. Now I'll turn the floor back to Rodrigo for the next question.
Rodrigo Maia: 71:27 Thank you. Next question from Rafael Barcellos from Santander.
Rafael Barcellos: 71:33 Could you tell us a bit more about the scrap business in Brazil? And what about the inventories in the steel chain?
Rafael Japur: 71:43 Thank you, Rafael. Well, the scrap operation in Brazil follows what happens elsewhere in the world. But the way we buy scrap in Brazil is probably one of our major strength something that we initiated throughout our more than 120 years of existence. We our purchase is very spread around and this puts us in a very distinguished condition in terms of production cost. The market remains healthy just like in the U.S. Now we are facing a bit more difficulty in terms of purchasing premium scrap. We are acquiring these scrap by types of metallic, so in terms of price. Historic levels for scrap, this is no longer a concern. Going forward as it is today with coal.
Rodrigo Maia: 72:44 Thank you. Our last question is from .
Unidentified Analyst: 72:48 Are you expecting any improvements in the margins for special steels for the next coming quarters? And how do you think that future margins in South America should behave?
Rafael Japur: 73:01 Well, yes, we do expect the recovery of special steel margins in the coming quarters, which is something that already occurred in the first quarter of this year. This was our best quarter in the past few years. In a moment, when demand is too far from being in a healthy level. These margins -- the margins that we delivered in the first quarter of this year are very much related to our capacity to manage our plans well. And it's also related to the profitability the way we recompose our profitability. And if you look at Chile and other areas, maybe the margins could be expanded. In Brazil, we have an advantage because more than half of our deliveries are related to heavy vehicles. The heavy vehicle industry is less impacted production of trucks is less impacted by the lack of semiconductors. No shipments are still very healthy, when it comes to heavy vehicles in Brazil impacted by a record crop season and other demands coming from consumers of heavy vehicles. 74:18 And we still see with good eyes this new program from the Brazilian government that intends to remove all trucks from the market. And so as this demand remains healthy, and once that evolves, once all of the raw material problems are solved, we believe that the margins will continue to outperform further. 74:48 In terms of management costs, everything is going well in the countries where we operate Argentina, in Uruguay, the demands coming from the construction market remain very good. Well, there are -- I mean, in Peru, there are also problems of logistics in March, we had several days when we had difficulties to deliver our products, because there was a problem with the delivery by truck. So South America in the next coming quarters, will certainly deliver results very similar to those that we saw in this first quarter of this year.
Unidentified Analyst: 75:32 Thank you, Gustavo.
Rodrigo Maia: 75:34 Now, we conclude the Q&A session. The questions that by any chance have not been answered, can be then submitted to our IR team that will get in touch with you to provide the necessary answers. Now, I turn the floor back to Gustavo and Japur for their final remarks.
Gustavo Werneck: 75:55 Thank you, Rodrigo. Once again, thank you so much for your dedication throughout these more than 13 years at Gerdau. And I would also like to thank all of you who joined us today. I hope you have a good day. Thank you, Japur and Rodrigo. I really wish you the best and great success in your new journey. 76:17 And again, I would like to thank all of you who joined us today, it’s always a pleasure to talk to you. And I would like to take this opportunity to invite you to join us again for our next earnings release call on August 3rd for our second quarter results. Thank you very much, and please take care.
